Michael Siemer

Principal Economist, Federal Reserve Board

My research studies how banks and financial conditions shape firm dynamics, employment, and the real economy — and, in current work, what AI means for economic forecasting and adoption.

Contactweb [at] michael-siemer.com

Michael Siemer

I have been an economist at the Federal Reserve Board since 2013, first in Research and Statistics and now in the Division of Financial Stability. From 2023 to 2024 much of my work went to the Bank Term Funding Program, the emergency liquidity facility the Federal Reserve created in response to that spring's banking turmoil — work recognized with a Board Special Achievement Award.

My work sits where banking meets the real economy: how the condition of financial intermediaries shapes firm entry, employment, and local economic outcomes. Recent projects examine the flexibility of corporate loan contracts and what AI-generated macroeconomic forecasts actually measure.

I hold a PhD in economics from Boston University and studied previously at Simon Fraser University and the University of Regensburg. I referee for leading journals in economics and finance, and present my work at central banks and universities domestically and internationally.

Debt Flexibility

Abstract

How flexible are corporate loans after origination? Theory predicts coordination problems should make syndicated loans harder to modify than single-bank loans. We show the opposite. Using comprehensive regulatory data, we document that syndicated loans are modified frequently and respond to borrower distress, while single-lender loans are half as likely to be modified. This gap is not explained by covenants or performance pricing. Instead, syndicated loans are monitored more intensively. We show theoretically and empirically how fixed monitoring costs generate scale economies: larger loans justify continuous monitoring enabling flexible renegotiation, while smaller borrowers receive arm's-length contracts with limited scope for modifications.

with Rhys Bidder, Nicolas Crouzet & Margaret M. Jacobson · November 2025

The Federal Reserve's Response to the 2023 Banking Turmoil: the Bank Term Funding Program

Abstract

The Bank Term Funding Program (BTFP) was an emergency liquidity facility set up by the Federal Reserve in March 2023 following the failure of Silicon Valley Bank which experienced a classic bank run driven by weak fundamentals. This paper provides an in-depth discussion of the design and implementation of the BTFP and presents some evidence on program outcomes. It also quantifies how the lending terms compare to those of the Discount Window—the Federal Reserve's main standing liquidity facility. The BTFP successfully acted as a backstop source of funding for depository institutions with large unrealized securities losses and heavy reliance on uninsured deposits and, in doing so, helped to avert a potential systemic banking crisis. The program ceased issuing new loans in March 2024 and closed one year later as the last loans matured. All outstanding loan balances were repaid in full.

with David M. Arseneau, Antonis Kotidis & Elizabeth Klee · November 2025

Bank Health and Local Economic Outcomes

with Simon Gilchrist & Egon Zakrajsek · October 2023 · new version forthcoming

All working papers →

Employment Effects of Financial Constraints During the Great Recession · Review of Economics and Statistics, 2019

The Great Recession and a Missing Generation of Exporters · IMF Economic Review, 2019

International Risk Cycles · Journal of International Economics, 2013

All publications →